AI Wars: Mistral vs. OpenAI So much happened in...
So much happened over the weekend, and I don't just mean the Super Bowl. Mistral came back from the dead. Have you heard of Mistral in a long time? Mistral is a European AI model maker, and they are back. And they are incredibly fast, apparently running on Swiss chips, building a French data center. I've played with it. The app is free to download on the App Store. It feels like a ChatGPT 4.0 class model, but it's really, really fast. Like, blink, and it's there fast. ChatGPT became the sixth most visited website, and this was, again, before their Super Bowl ad. And by the way, if you want to know, like, what does sixth mean, it means they get 2.3% of all the Internet's traffic. And if you're like, that doesn't sound like a lot, it's like, well, it's a lot, but it's not as much as Google. Google.com gets 29.2% of the Internet's traffic, and the number two site is YouTube, also owned by Google. So Google's doing very well. So that's right. Google gets more than 10 times the traffic ChatGPT gets now. But Sam announced that he planned to run down Google, so we'll see. Then we come to the Super Bowl ad itself that ChatGPT ran, and a bunch of other AI ads. Gemini ran a few, speaking of Google. I felt like the Gemini ads showed that people are learning how to talk about what AI can do in a different way. I thought the ads actually put AI into context in a way that's more helpful, with the exception of ChatGPT, which was just a weird bunch of dots. I think that they're trying to brand the dot. I said I suspected it was a branding play, and it was. I honestly think it was a terrible branding play. Like, I don't know why you brand your product with the symbol of waiting that your product has. But that is what is going on. Like, the dots dancing are the symbol of waiting for ChatGPT, and they did that the same weekend that Mistral released the fastest model I have ever seen. And so I don't know. I think that the dot is very recognizable. It probably is a part of their brand. I'm just not sure I would have made it the center of the Super Bowl ad and just done what is effectively swirling dots representing visual patterns of humanity's exploration through the ages, ending in ChatGPT, like rockets, the moon, now ChatGPT. So that's the Super Bowl ad. We'll see how it goes. I could be wrong. I'm not the general public here by any stretch of the imagination. Another tidbit for you. DeepSeek has purchased AI.com. That's right. If you go to AI.com now, you're going to go to DeepSeek. I think that's interesting. I don't know how they got it. I thought Google owned it. Not anymore. DeepSeek has it now. Maybe Google is letting it go in order to make a play. I don't know. Maybe it's a little revenge play. I have no idea. But now DeepSeek has it before Google appeared to have it. Last but not least, I want to go through three scaling laws. Sam Altman appears to be trying to sort of reinvent Moore's Law for the AI age. Moore's Law, of course, is the famous law about scaling compute. Sam's laws are about scaling intelligence. So first, getting cheaper. Sam says that the cost to use a given level of artificial intelligence drops by about 10x a year, which means it drops 100x in two years. It drops 1,000x in three, which, by the way, puts some context around the cost to train DeepSeek. That's roughly in line with Sam's law, given that it's a 4.0 class kind of a model. Second, intelligence scales with the logarithmic value of the resources invested, or the log of resources invested. But what Sam is saying is that there is a predictable yield of intelligence for the resources invested. But with log, it's the exponentially higher number of resources to get the next level of intelligence. And that's why they're spending so much. And so what Sam is really saying, when he says that intelligence is the log of resources, he's saying that at the end of the day, they're going to keep spending lots and lots and lots more, like 10x more to get double the intelligence kind of a thing. And if that's worth it, and this is his third law, because intelligence has extraordinary socioeconomic value. And so he's basically saying, I can raise money, which is true. SoftBank just ponied up $40 billion to fund OpenAI. And I can do that because I can show I can spend it to get more intelligence, which is his second law. And that intelligence has so much value, that extra intelligence has so much value, it's worth it. And that's really the key. Even though intelligence is getting cheaper fast, the extra value of the additional intelligence is extremely high. The extra value of being six months or two years ahead in the race is something that is extremely high because of the marginal value of a model that is that much smarter. So there you go. That's the news that happened over the weekend. I hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl. I guess you did if you were an Eagles fan. Cheers.
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