I’m over the AI jobs panic. So over it I write ...
I feel like I have to have a sign that says don't panic all the time, because everybody else is trying to make people panic about AI and jobs. And you're going to see more headlines on Monday about it, because Meta did some layoffs. And I don't know what the real story is, except that Mark Zuckerberg has been doing layoffs since long before AI, so it's not that new. But I'm sure the newspapers will tell you that it's about AI and layoffs. And I'm just so tired. I'm just so tired. So I went back and I actually did a comprehensive study on tech and layoffs and how tech has changed and evolved out of job families. It's personal for me, because I've had my two earliest roles in tech disappear. I actually checked that out on LinkedIn. Conversion rate optimizer doesn't exist anymore, basically, like it's gone because the tech has evolved to the point where you don't need someone to manually set up and run A-B tests. Not really. Or it's a tiny part of someone's job because there's so much tech there. And I look at that, I'm like, this doesn't feel that different. Will AI reshape and change roles and jobs 100%? And I don't want to minimize that. I actually wrote about that. I think it's changing PM faster than it's changing engineering. Actually, that's my spicy take for the day. But the point is, it's reshaping the roles. It's not necessarily leading to world-ending job family destroying change in the same way that we are being told. Will job families eventually disappear, evolve, and automate? I have to believe yes, because my own job families in the past have also disappeared and evolved. But will people evolve skills along the way and grow? Also, yes. I'm a big believer in people. So anyway, I've gone on for two minutes now. If you would like to read a good long read Saturday morning over coffee, I wrote it up on Substack. It's totally free. I want people to be able to read this and share this with someone in their life who is worried about AI and worried about their job. I go all the way back to NASA and the human computers. Did you know computer used to be a human job? Compute was people. People who actually calculated the trajectories of rockets manually. That was the computer. And then the IBM mainframe automated away their job. But if you follow the stories of the people, they upskilled. And so I look at that, and I talk about that. I talk about how AI is in some ways different, in some ways not. I actually go in and I estimate the triggers that we need to watch for in our jobs to see if there is a coming wave of automation for particular roles like product or engineering or marketing. I get at some numbers. I do some like calculations and estimates myself and put them in there. I tried to make it really comprehensive. And I guess it felt really reassuring to write. I think being thoughtful is a lot more useful than panicking because we can plan ahead. So if that's something you would like to do, if you would like to embrace the don't panic lifestyle, feel free to go read the Substack. And if you're on TikTok and you're like, Nate, I don't go to Substack. I don't care. Have fun. Don't panic.
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